According to Las Vegas Strip bookmaker Johnny Avello, the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs Conference Championship game tomorrow is expected to be the largest betting event of the year for DraftKings, potentially the largest ever (aside from Super Bowls). 

“It’s a matchup that doesn’t get old,” he said. “It’s two heavyweights. All eyes, and all bets, are on this game.”

NFL Wagering: Chilly and Clear in K.C. 

Avello, serving as the Director of Race & Sportsbooks Operations at DraftKings, supervises the trader desk and was reviewing the odds for tomorrow’s games during a conversation with Casino.org. 

The Bills-Chiefs game, with clear skies and temperatures anticipated to be about 34 degrees, promises to be a beautiful event. Avello analyzed the betting landscape for both Conference Championship games, with the other featuring the rising Washington Commanders facing the Eagles in Philadelphia in the NFC showdown. 

Commanders vs. Eagles, 3 p.m. EST, FOX

• Spread: Commanders +6 (-108), Eagles -6 (-112)
• Moneyline: Commanders +225, Eagles -278
• Over/Under: 47.5

“That one’s going to take quite a bit of action, and it already has. The trend we’re seeing on that – the line opened up 5.5. We moved to 6, totals 47.5. No movement on that, but they are betting the over a bit. The Eagles are taking money on the side, but the Commanders are taking an abundance of money on the money line at +225. So, bettors really like the big plus. Whether the Commanders can get this done or not, I don’t know. This would be their third meeting of the year.

"And of course, and few weeks back, the Commanders won the game 36-33, an absolutely abnormal football game for the Eagles. And when I say that, [Commanders QB] Jayden Daniels had five TD passes. Can that happen again? I doubt it, not in a game with this kind of magnitude.

Hurts Injured?

“Then the Commanders defense wasn’t that effective against the Detroit Lions (last week’s Divisional Round game). They gave up 200 yards rushing. This is a tough game for them. They know this team, but they’re not going to be able to just post their will. That’s not what’s going to happen here. Not that they can’t win the game. It’s just going to be a battle to try to win it.

“But the consumer, the bettor, they’re taking the Commanders with those big odds, taking a shot with them. And I can’t blame them. That’s that’s kind of typical, though, for our network. They’d like to take dogs in a game like this, where they feel they really have a shot to win, and the point spread’s not that high.”

“One big factor here is [Eagles QB] Jalen Hurts. He was got hurt in the third quarter last week. I don’t think he’s 100% but he’s gamer. They will rely heavily on the run. You can expect that ball to be in [Eagles RB] Saquon Barkley’s hands all day long. Can the Commanders slow him that down, because no one has been able to yet?”

NFL Betting: Popular Props

“Barkley is bet each and every week – will he score a first touchdown, any touchdown, over on the yards? So Barkley’s going to take a lot of action. Daniels is going to take a lot of action. Daniels take a lot of action on passing yards, also score a touchdown and rushing yards. So who’s ever played well leading up to these games, that’s where you’ll see action, or whoever’s performed in a capacity where they’ve scored a lot of touchdowns during the year, or first touchdown, consumers are going to continue to be betting games like this.”

Bills vs. Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. EST, CBS

• Spread: Bills +1.5 (-108), Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: Bills +105, Chiefs -125
• Over/Under: 48.5

“[Last week against the Baltimore Ravens], even if Mark Andrews [Ravens TE] catches that ball [dropped pass for the two-point conversion that would have tied the game], there was still like a minute and a half left in the game. [Bills QB] Josh Allen might have went right down the field and scored a touchdown, and got the job done. So that’s why you can’t put the full blame on Andrews. There was still a lot of time left in the game.

“As far as this game is concerned, [Chiefs QB Patrick] Mahomes, [Chiefs TE Travis] Kelce, looks like they’re back, or are they? Kelce was great last week. It seems like he shows up all the time. Maybe this is the last run for him. If they win a Super Bowl, maybe he retires, rides off into the sunset with Taylor Swift.

“The Bills have the more prolific offense, that’s for sure. But the Chiefs have the experience in winning. Bills have been in some big games, but the Chiefs have won big games, more than not. And the way the Chiefs usually play is they seem to move the ball, either early in the game or early second half, when they need to, get a little bit of a lead, and if the other team is close, they figure out a way to shut them down at the end of the game or go down the field and score to win the game.”

Edge: Josh Allen

“There’s similarities between the New England Patriots and the Chiefs. The Patriots had Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and one key guy, like a Gronk (TE Rob Gronkowski). The Chiefs, same thing – they have the coach, Andy Reid, Mahomes and Kelce. They just have guys that fit in and get the job done. So a lot of it has to do with coaching. And if there’s a coaching edge in this game, it definitely goes to Andy Reid.

“I think the edge for the Bills is [QB Josh Allen] has so many guys he can go to on that team. They have some really quality offensive players, guys like [receiver Khalil] Shakir. Not that the Chiefs don’t have a few guys like that. But the Bills have multiple guys like that. [RB James] Cook’s had a great year. He’s a confident kid. I was down on Cook because he was fumbling the ball, but he’s really come around to be quite a running back. I think they just have more offensive weapons.

“What about Josh Allen [who reportedly has been dealing with a left hand injury]? It’s his left hand. He doesn’t do anything with that hand. He probably doesn’t even brush his teeth with it. The only thing he needs it for is when he takes a snap from the center, to secure the ball. That’s it. I don’t see how that affects his game. He didn’t pass for a lot of yards last week, but it was just that type of game. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He just hasn’t won, that’s all. And the edge always has to go to the guy that’s won [Mahomes].

NFL Betting: Popular Props

“Nothing surprising – first touchdown, anytime score, with Kelce. They are spreading it around a little bit with the Bills, because Allen has so many options. Allen to score a touchdown, Allen to throw a touchdown, just a lot props around the the offensive side of the game. Nothing’s really changed on how they’re betting those player props for this one.”